Attribution and ROI
Heirship plus unpaid taxes closes at 6.8%.
WHAT THIS ISWhat actually turned into closed deals: which signal combinations, which channels, and what each deal cost.
WHAT SONAR IS DOINGTracing every closing back to the signals and touches that produced it, and proposing new weights for the scoring rubric.
WHY IT MATTERSThe engine gets sharper every cycle. Money moves to the stacks and channels that close, not the ones that feel busy.
Deal rate by signal pair% of contacted parcels that closed
| T | F | L | C | O | E | V | |
| T | 1.2% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% |
| F | 3.8% | 1.6% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% |
| L | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| C | 2.3% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.7% |
| O | 2.4% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 2.4% | 1.9% |
| E | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 2.4% |
| V | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.3% |
Diagonal = one family alone. Outlined: heirship (L) with unpaid taxes (T).
Read: court events stacked with money trouble close 3 to 6 times better than any single signal. Foreclosure plus an absentee owner is the second-best pair.
Stacks ranked by deal rate · 6 months
Six-month moneyin thousands
Deals per monthClosedFrom harbor
31 closed · 6 from harbor partners · September on pace for 10.
Outreach cost per closed dealmail and data onlydeals
Harbor referrals close at a quarter of the cost of mail. Next cycle moves $1,200 from 75040 mail to partner lunches.
Proposed rubric changes · cycle 39
▲Heirship affidavit (L2) weight 9 → 10n = 14
▲Zombie vacancy (V3) weight 9 → 9.5n = 6
▼Code request alone (C1) weight 4 → 3n = 212
▼Knock index above 7: mail paused2 ZIPs
If approved
Back-test · last 6 months31 closings
Closings ranked in top decile19 → 22
HOT band precision21% → 24%
Mail spend avoided$3,900/mo